Monday, November 14, 2011

Dear Juan Manuel Marquez

Dear Juan Manuel Marquez,
First, congratulations on an excellent performance against Manny Pacquiao on November 12.  You demonstrated that more than any other fighter, you have figured out the Pacquiao puzzle.  You deserve great credit for that.  [Despl├ícese hacia abajo de la letra en espa├▒ol]

In your post fight interview you said you were robbed, and that you might retire.  That’s understandable in the heat of the moment right after the fight, but after you’ve had a chance to reflect on it, I hope you will elect to continue.  It is clear you have the skills and physical ability, and Bernard Hopkins has certainly taught us that 38 is not as old as we thought it was.  Your performance against Manny reinforces that.

If you elect to continue fighting, and in particular if you elect to challenge Manny Pacquiao to a fourth fight, I would respectfully suggest that you need to be aware of some realities about judges scoring.  Had you been more fully concious and accepting of them this time, you might have won the fight by pushing yourself harder in the later rounds when the fight still hung in the balance.  True, by pushing yourself you would be exposing yourself to more risk — even to a possible knockout, but that is always the way of it when you are the challenger attempting to take the belt away from the champion.

The judges in Nevada are charged to look for a) clean, effective punching, b) effective aggression, c) ring generalship, and d) defense.  A study of how US (and most other) judges score over the last 10 years shows that in a close fight, the judges almost always favor the fighter who presses the action and is perceived as the aggressor in the fight.  Being the aggressor almost always generates a higher punch output, and even if the punches aren’t completely clean, the judges reward the attacking style which, even if it doesn’t result in clean punches, does expose the aggressor to greater risk than his opponent–something that the judges evidently feel should be rewarded.   Your reliance on counterpunching, while it may produce cleaner landed shots,  will always put you at a disadvantage with judges in a close fight if you rely heavily on the counterpunching style and do not act as the aggressor.

To state the equation very clearly:   The very act of launching an attack against a composed, skillful opponent whose guard is up is a risky manuever which exposes the attacker.  By taking that risk and launching that attack, the attacker gains favor in the eyes of the judges, and even if his punches don’t land as cleanly as your counterpunches, he gets credit for a) forcing the action and being the aggressor, b) taking the risk associated with attacking a skilled, waiting opponent.

In your first two fights with Manny Pacquiao, while you were oriented toward counterpunching, you also launched offensive attacks and in both of those fights you had a higher volume of punches that Pacquiao; a higher landed punch total; and a higher number of solid, compelling punches.  But in those fights — he knocked you down four times.  There is no doubt that if you had not been knocked down, you would have won both those fights because all of the other statistics were in your favor.

But this is not true of your most recent fight.  In that fight Pacquiao had a higher volume of attacks; higher volume of punches; higher number of landed punches; higher number of landed powershots.   Your counters were effective and in some cases dramatic — but by its very nature, your counterpunch oriented approach will impress the fans (and your trainer, evidently), but unless you create knockdowns it will not impress the judges — at least it won’ t impress them enough to offset the advantages that Pacquiao is gaining from his constantly being the aggressor; constantly exposing himself to risk by launching attacks against a waiting opponent; and in doing so generating an overall impression that he’s moving forward while you’re moving backwards; he’s getting off more punches (hence taking more risk); he’s landing more punches even if they’re not as clean (after all he’s punching a waiting opponent, not an exposed one).

Also, if I may offer one other piece of advice.  In each of these fights, your Hall of Fame trainer Mr. Berestain has repeatedly told you in the corner between rounds that you are winning the fight.  By now, given your highly intelligent nature, you must realize that no matter what Mr. Berestain says, you must keep fighting as if you are not ahead.  You are the challenger; the underdog; and you are using a counterpunching style that puts you at a disadvantage with judges.  You must never assume you are ahead.  In the fight on November 12, if you had gone into the “championship rounds” with the attitude that you must win these rounds, the outcome of the fight might have been different.


Monday, October 31, 2011

Betting odds widen:Pacquiao & Marquez somewhere between 'violent & hysterical

, Long Beach Boxing Examiner
HOT POTATO via Hollywood, California  - Nearly ninety-five percent of all the interplays for betting odds brings to mind the likelihood that such purported event would transpire, expecially in the sport of boxing. Whether odds-masters' calculations are based on standard deviation, cached wisdom or the simple formula of statistical prediction rule, it does not matter. All of which are simply products of formula. What is beyond this approach to probability is the element of surprise, that which Marquez may have the ability to reinvent himself over Pacquiao's weaknesses.
According to oddsmakers as of this writing, Pacquiao scores 5/8 if he wins by knockout, technical knockout or disqualification; this means if you are betting on a full wager of $100 for Pacquiao, you will win $62.50. For Pacquiao winning by decision or technical decision, it gets closer: 3/2; this means if you are betting on a full wager of $ 100 for Pacquiao, you will $ 150.
Marquez, on the other hand, is deemed to bring upon Pacquiao an element of surprise at 12/1. That if Marquez wins by knockout, technical knockout or disqualification. If you bet, therefore, $ 100 on a full wager in favor of Marquez, you will win $ 1,200.

Notwithstanding, for 'draw' or 'technical draw', your $100 will win $ 3,300. And for 'no contest', the odd is 30/11; that means if you bet $100, you will win $ 3,000.
But, should Pacquiao or Marquez bring shorter fixed odds of each outcome than the true likelihood of a decision happening?
And should statiscal prediction rules out-perform expert human judgments to favor Marquez by knockout?
No one can divine.
Stay tuned for more!

Continue reading on Betting odds widen:Pacquiao & Marquez somewhere between 'violent & hysterical' - Long Beach Boxing |

Manny Pacquiao not to fight with anger?

Manny Pacquiao: Why Pacquiao-Marquez III Will Be Best Fight of the Trilogy

By (Featured Columnist) on October 10, 2011 


NEW YORK, NY - SEPTEMBER 06:  Professional Boxers Manny 
Pacquiao (L) and Juan Manuel Marquez attend the press conference for 
their World Welterweight Championship Fight at The Lighthouse at Chelsea
 Piers on September 6, 2011 in New York City.  (Photo by Michael 
Loccisano/Getty Images) Michael Loccisano/Getty Images
What does the future hold for the best pound-for-pound boxer in the world, Manny Pacquiao? His November 12th matchup with Juan Manuel Marquez is a good place to start.

Pacquiao-Marquez III
This is set up to be the best fight of the trilogy. Since it's the third time these guys will battle each other, each will come out swinging.
The first two matches were some of the most exciting fights you'll likely ever see. Although Pacquiao won the second fight by split decision, many believe Marquez should have won.
Flashback to the first fight that resulted in a draw. That decision also could have easily gone to Marquez.
Pac-Man won't want there to be any question about fight number three. He'll come out in an aggressive style and look to win this match right away.
Meanwhile, Marquez isn't in all that different of a situation. He recently lost to Floyd Mayweather, so many people don't think he deserves this fight.
Dinamita has a lot to prove. He can't afford to sit back and not engage.
No matter what you think of this fight ,or who you think should be facing Pacquiao, there's no denying it will be as exciting as ever.

123962364_crop_340x234 Michael Loccisano/Getty Images
These two both give each other fits and neither will lose without going down swinging. That's all you can ask for.

What's Next for Pacquiao?
Obviously some people are disappointed that Pacquiao is going up against Marquez for the third time as they believe there are better options out there. Assuming Pac-Man wins this bout, where does he go from there?
Honestly, there aren't a ton of realistic options out there.
Floyd Mayweather is who everyone wants to see, but for now it just doesn't seem like it's going to happen. I know, I know, I don't like it either, but we have to live with it.
In the welterweight division there are only two other options:
Victor Ortiz, who just lost to Floyd Mayweather, and Andre Berto, who lost to Victor Ortiz earlier in the year. It's hard to argue either of those have a reason for getting a fight with the champ.
There's an intriguing option in the light welterweight division in Amir Khan, but with one minor problem—Pacquiao and Kahn have the same trainer and are good friends. A fight is unlikely.
That leaves Timothy Bradley who is currently on the Pacquiao-Marquez III undercard in November.
The 28-year-old Bradley is currently 27-0, but recently refused to fight Amir Khan. He might not be the most deserving of Pacquiao, but he will probably get a shot if he defeats Joel Casamayor in a month.
So there you have it. Pacquiao set for an uber-exciting fight with Juan Manuel Marquez but then a likely matchup with an undeserving Timothy Bradley.



Manny Pacquiao: Pacman Will Prove Marquez Doesn't Belong in Same Ring

By (Featured Columnist) on October 30, 2011 


HOLLYWOOD, CA - OCTOBER 26:  Manny Pacquia gives 
interviews during a Media Workout promoting his upcoming fight with Juan
 Manuel Marquez at Wild Card Boxing Club on October 26, 2011 in 
Hollywood, California.  (Photo by Stephen Dunn/Getty Images) Stephen Dunn/Getty Images
Manny Pacquiao and Juan Manuel Marquez will engage in an intriguing battle on November 12. Pacquiao will make the boxing world want Pacquiao vs. Floyd Mayweather more than ever after he defeats Marquez for the third time.
He’s taking it personally. “I’m not upset, but I get excited because he’s claiming that he won the fights,” Pacquiao said. “That’s why I train hard, because I want to end this, all the doubts. This is our last fight.”
Pacquiao (53-3-2, 38 KO) is faster, stronger, younger and more cerebral in the ring than Marquez. He wants to finally put to rest that Marquez should have received better results in their two previous fights.
Marquez (53-5-1, 39 KO) is 38 years old, nearing the end of his career and has lost twice to Pacquiao already. Sometimes people have one another’s number and Pacquiao has his.
There really isn’t much more to it: Pacquiao is the better overall fighter. He will prove that on November 12 because he wants to show the world just how much better of a complete fighter he is than Marquez.
Fighting style will be the biggest deciding factor in this fight. If Marquez elects to go toe-to-toe in a brawl, he may get himself in trouble because that is playing right into Pacquiao’s hands.